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Hodnocení vlivu devizových intervencí ČNB na export České republiky
Prejdová, Jana
This paper is studying forex interventions implemented by the Czech national bank since November 2013 and their effects on the Czech Republic's export. The area of interest of this paper is the period since 2005 to January 2016. The first section of the bachelor thesis studies monetary policy and foreign trade of the Czech Republic in the period of focus. Next part focuses on the change in strategy of central banks after the global financial crisis and theoretic findings of the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-Curve for foreign trade. In the second main section of this paper there are estimated import and export elasticities using Mandel's (1994) methodology. The elasticities are later used to determine if the Marshall-Lerner condition is met in the studied period for the trade between the Czech Republic and its main trading partners.
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Forex interventions of CNB in front of the door to Eurozone
Kadlec, Tomáš
Kadlec, T. Forex interventions of CNF in front of the door to Eurozone. Di-ploma thesis. Brno: Mendel University, 2015. This thesis study the foreign exchange intervention of Czech National Bank, launched in November 2013. Under the circumstances have been chosen to use the Marshall-Lerner condition which finds the economy suitable for cur-rency devaluation or not. For reach this goal have been calculated regression analysis with two alternative results for calculating the condition. In the first alternative, full Marshall-Lerner equation, could not be satisfaction of condi-tion proven, but nor was dissatisfaction. In the second one, where was import of Czech Republic calculated with zero value according to regression analysis result, was the condition satisfied. Results have been compared with numbers from United Kingdom and found opposed. In comparison to Slovak Republic was found Czech development of macroeconomic indicators better.
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Yield curve dynamics: Co-movements of latent global and Czech yield curves
Šimáně, Jaromír ; Šopov, Boril (advisor) ; Novák, Jiří (referee)
This thesis focus on a yield curve modelling. It estimates unobserved "global" yield curve factors which drives changes in individual real yield curves. Yield curves of USD, GBP, JPY and EUR are considered and global factors are able to explain substantial part of their variances. The method is built on the Nelson-Siegel model which is implemented in a state-space form to be able to extract the unobserved yield factors. The estimated global yield factors are further used for explaining the evolution of the Czech yield curve. Their impact to the Czech yield curve is estimated in a time-varying regression which results show that the impact of the global factors is stronger during the years of the interventions of the Czech National Bank and thus suggests that the interventions help to transmit the global low interest rates to the Czech economy.
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Vliv devizových intervencí na čistý export České republiky
Nevrklová, Marta
The diploma thesis deals with the influence of foreign exchange interventions on net export of the Czech Republic. The first part deals with unconventional monetary policy instruments with focus on the exchange rate as a tool for zero lower bound situation. The reason why central banks use unconventional monetary policy instruments is described in this part as well as the impact of foreign exchange interventions on international trade. Furthermore, the thesis focuses on the international trade analysis of the Czech Republic and the influence of foreign exchange interventions on imports, exports, turnover and foreign trade balance. It is followed by the quantification of the relationship between the change of the nominal exchange rate CZK/EUR and the Czech international trade through a regression analysis. The results of the thesis show a positive impact of foreign exchange interventions on Czech international trade.
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Dopad devizových intervencí na makroekonomické ukazatele
Roháč, Richard
This bachelor thesis deals with evaluation of CNB’s currency interventions‘ impact on macroeconomic indicators. To achieve this, an analysis of time series of these macroeconomic indicators in software Gretl is used. By creating multiple regression models, the main factors influencing change of consumer price index during intervention regime are determined. To analyze the impact of currency interventions on indicators, interaction terms are used. Exchange rate commitment itself had an impact on real import, unemployment and total consumption. It took six to twelve months before the exchange rate shock was reflected for the most part in consumer prices.
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Oprávněnost intervencí ČNB na devizovém trhu
Hynková, Marie
Hynková, M. The eligibility of the CNB interventions in the foreign exchange mar-ket. Diploma thesis. Brno: Mendel University in Brno, 2018. This diploma thesis deals with the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank after the financial crisis. The monetary policy of the CNB is compared with doings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Attention is paid to the monetary policy of the CNB and to the reasons why the CNB has provided inter-ventions on the foreign exchange market in order to depreciate the CZK/EUR ex-change rate. The diploma thesis described in detail foreign exchange interventi-ons, which the CNB acceded on November 7, 2013, and subsequently abandoned them on April 6, 2017. The CNB wanted to influence the impending deflationary development in the country, so the diploma thesis also deals with the consequen-ces caused by the use of this non-conventional tool. The work also evaluates the benefits and costs of foreign exchange interventions. The empirical part of the diploma thesis demonstrates the relationship of inflation and the exchange rate CZK/EUR. There is also an appreciation of factors influencing the development of inflation during the intervention period.
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Non-standard Monetary Policy Instruments of Central Banks
Šikulová, Markéta ; Bažantová, Ilona (advisor) ; Dupáková, Lenka (referee)
Non-standard Monetary Policy Instruments of Central Banks Abstract The aim of this study is to analyze non-standard monetary instruments of central banks and their impact on the example of concrete use of these instruments by the Czech National Bank and the European Central Bank. The first part of this study defines the essence, the implementors, the tasks, and the objectives of the monetary policy. Its tools are also disassembled, both standard and nonstandard. From non-standard instruments, closer attention is paid to the theoretical definition of quantitative easing, negative interest rates and long-term maintenance of the exchange rate commitment. I also deal with the legal anchor, organization, purpose, history, and concept of the monetary policy of two selected central banks, namely the CNB and the ECB. The next part of the study presents the concrete form of non-standard measures used by the CNB and the ECB, it deals with the specific reasons that the central banks led to their implementation, the objectives with which they were adopted and the impact these measures had on the Czech economy and the euro area. Based on the analysis, it is possible to confirm the tested hypothesis that the Czech National Bank and the European Central Bank have succeeded in meeting the objectives set before their...
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Yield curve dynamics: Co-movements of latent global and Czech yield curves
Šimáně, Jaromír ; Šopov, Boril (advisor) ; Novák, Jiří (referee)
This thesis focus on a yield curve modelling. It estimates unobserved "global" yield curve factors which drives changes in individual real yield curves. Yield curves of USD, GBP, JPY and EUR are considered and global factors are able to explain substantial part of their variances. The method is built on the Nelson-Siegel model which is implemented in a state-space form to be able to extract the unobserved yield factors. The estimated global yield factors are further used for explaining the evolution of the Czech yield curve. Their impact to the Czech yield curve is estimated in a time-varying regression which results show that the impact of the global factors is stronger during the years of the interventions of the Czech National Bank and thus suggests that the interventions help to transmit the global low interest rates to the Czech economy.
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